Analysis: Abbas holding back a new intifada, but for how long?

Throughout the current wave of violence, and away from public rhetoric, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas continues to be perceived by Israel's defense establishment as a key restraining factor, though there is concern within quarters of the IDF that Abbas's ability to hold back a new intifada is growing weaker.

The PA's security forces are continuing to play a key role in preventing mass rioting on the scale seen more than ten years ago in the West Bank, and most importantly, they have received clear directives from Abbas to repress Hamas and its terror cells wherever they surface. But the ability of security forces to continue to do this may be decreasing.

Away from the public rhetoric, Abbas suffered a personal, political, and diplomatic loss in recent months in the eyes of many Palestinians, and his appearance at the United Nations last month, in which he asked for the international community to send a protective force for the Palestinians, was seen as desperate and weak by the Palestinian street. This has further undermined his standing, raising concerns within the defense establishment in Israel.

Currently. Abbas faces two strategic options, one which appears to be inapplicable, and the other undesirable from Abbas's perspective. The first option, of reaching a diplomatic agreement with Israel, seems out of reach, as far as Abbas is concerned. He does not seem prepared to make his position more flexible under current conditions.

The second option, of unleashing a full-scale third intifada, has been firmly ruled out by Abbas, who fears that such a development will destroy Palestinian society, and remembers the self-harm Palestinians brought on themselves during the second intifada.

Source: Jpost

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